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Seasonal Climate Watch - October 2020 to February 2021

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service:
Date issued: September 25, 2020


"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak La Niña state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely remain and strengthen towards a moderate La Niña state during early- and midsummer. With this strong likelihood of a moderate La Niña, there are increased chances of above-normal rainfall in the summer rainfall areas during the coming summer season.

The multi-model rainfall forecast for late spring (Oct-Nov-Dec), however, indicates that the eastern parts of the summer rainfall season may start off with below-normal rainfall, with above-normal expected for the rest of the region. During early- and mid-summer (Nov-Dec-Jan; Dec-Jan-Feb) most of the summer rainfall regions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, with some parts of KwaZulu-Natal very uncertain and even showing signs of below-normal rainfall.

In general, most of the country is expected to experience above-normal temperatures during late spring, however significant areas over the central parts of the country are expected to have below normal maximum temperatures during early- and mid-summer.

The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons."



by John Llewellyn