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Seasonal Climate Watch - November 2018 to March 2019

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service: Date issued: Nov 1, 2018

Overview

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and although most models indicate a strong strengthening towards an El Niño phase towards the early summer season, it is not expected to have an influence on South Africa during the first half of summer.

Above-normal rainfall conditions are expected over parts most of the summer rainfall areas during early summer (Nov-Dec-Jan), however below-normal is expected for the summer rainfall areas during mid-summer (Dec-Jan-Feb) and for the far north-eastern parts during late-summer (Jan-Feb-Mar).

Overall higher temperatures are still expected moving towards the mid- and late-summer period. There is a particularly confident forecast for above-normal maximum temperatures over the northern parts of the country. In general the same indication of a drier and warmer summer season as a whole is expected.

Significant rainfall events is still expected to be prevalent, however very inconsistent. Dry spells are expected to occur at a higher frequency and duration this summer season.”

 

by John Llewellyn