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Seasonal Climate Watch - July to November 2018

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service: Date issued: June 25, 2018

Overview

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through late winter to spring. At this stage there is a high likelihood of an El Niño developing, however it is still too early to predict its exact outcome during the next summer season. It is advised that this system be monitored in the next few months leading up to spring and summer to determine its impact on the summer-rainfall areas.

The forecasting system persists with indications of above-normal rainfall over the south-western parts of the country during late winter (Jul-Aug-Sep), however there is still no confidence for this period. There are however indications of drier conditions over parts of the south coast, with confidence, during the early-spring (Aug-Sep-Oct) and spring (Sep-Oct-Nov) seasons.

Even though the total rainfall forecasts for the spring season do not detect any confident deviation from the normal rainfall over the eastern coastal areas (traditional spring rainfall areas), the rainfall days are confidently predicted to be more frequent but possibly less intense.

Overall higher temperatures are still expected moving towards the spring period, however it is not uncommon for cold spells to occur throughout the winter season. There is a particularly confident forecast for above-normal temperatures over the northern parts of the country.

The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.”

 

by John Llewellyn