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Seasonal Climate Watch - July to September 2019

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service:
Date issued: June 28, 2019

Overview

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a moderate El Niño state and the forecast indicate that it will remain in at least a weak El Niño state throughout spring and early summer. Caution is advised however, as ENSO forecasts are less skilful during the winter and spring periods.

There is still no clear indication on rainfall expectations for the winter rainfall areas during late-winter (July-August-September) however early spring (August-September-October) indicates favourable forecasts for above-normal rainfall. There is also an indication of drier conditions over parts of the north-eastern interior during early spring (August-September- October). Forecasts for the south-eastern coastal areas show higher chances of increased rainfall intensity (>15mm rainfall days) during early spring.

With regards to temperatures, mostly higher than normal temperatures are expected for the northern most parts of the country; however, during early-spring, lower temperatures are expected for the southern parts of the country, returning to above-normal temperatures during spring (September-October-November).

The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.”

 

by John Llewellyn