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Seasonal Climate Watch - February to June 2020

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service:
Date issued: January 31, 2020


The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a borderline weak El Niño state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely remain at the border between the weak El Niño and neutral states for the rest of the summer season and early autumn. With the neutral ENSO once again heavily favoured for the coming seasons, forecast uncertainty is relatively high.

The rainfall forecast for early-autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr) and mid-autumn (Mar-Apr-May) from the SAWS/NOAA-GFDL Multi-Model system indicates enhanced probabilities of below-normal rainfall over most of the country with the exception of the eastern parts during mid-autumn which favours above-normal rainfall conditions. With regards to temperatures, mostly higher than normal temperatures are expected for the rest of summer and early autumn over most of South Africa except for the far south-western parts that indicate lower than normal minimum temperature throughout late-summer and autumn.

The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons”



by John Llewellyn