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Seasonal Climate Watch - May to September 2019

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service:
Date issued: May 1, 2019

Overview

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained in a moderate El Niño state and indications are that it will strengthen throughout winter and spring. This however is not expected to influence South Africa in the current and upcoming seasons as ENSO has little influence over South Africa during autumn or winter (or its influence is not yet fully known).

Early- and mid-winter (May-June-July; June-July-August) forecasts are optimistic for above-normal rainfall conditions over the south-western parts of the country. These are also the only areas that typically receive significant rainfall during these seasons. An increased number of rainfall days of only 5mm and not 15mm is also expected during early-winter, suggesting that the above-normal rainfall will likely not be characterised by a high frequency of extreme events.

It is important to note that rainfall usually decrease during winter over the country except the above-mentioned regions in the South Western Cape. Therefore, no significant rainfall is expected during the forecasted period for the central and north-eastern parts of the country. With regards to temperatures, mostly higher than normal temperatures are expected for most parts of the country; however, during mid-winter the expectation is for lower than normal maximum temperatures for the south-western half of the country.

The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.”

 

by John Llewellyn