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Seasonal Climate Watch - June to October 2018

The following text is an extract from the latest report from South African Weather Service: Date issued: May 28, 2018

Overview

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase trough winter and spring. At this stage there is a high likelihood of an El Niño developing, however it is still too early to predict its exact outcome during the next summer season. It is advised that this system be monitored in the next few months leading up to spring and summer to determine its impact on the summer rainfall areas.

Even though there is a higher likelihood for above-normal rainfall for the mid- (Jun-Jul-Aug) and late-winter (Jul-Aug-Sep) seasons, there is a distinct lack of confidence in these forecasts. Thus, as last month, there is uncertainty in the rainfall conditions for mid- and late winter. The same level of uncertainty is evident on the prediction of rainfall days within the mid- and late-winter seasons.

Generally warmer temperatures are expected across the country during mid- and late-winter, however like the rainfall forecasts there is a distinct lack of confidence in these forecasts and thus temperature conditions for the rest of winter remain uncertain.

The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons."

 

by John Llewellyn